Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu · Analysis updated 10:38 UTC
İzmir Çoruhlu FK vs Uşak Spor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for İzmir Çoruhlu FK and 1.22 for Uşak Spor, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Uşak Spor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Uşak Spor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Uşak Spor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 30% / 29% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for İzmir Çoruhlu FK and 1.22 for Uşak Spor, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
İzmir Çoruhlu FK
Uşak Spor
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Nilüfer Belediye · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Etimesgut SK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Akşehirspor · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kütahyaspor | 30 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 75 |
| 2 | Eskişehirspor | 30 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 71 |
| 3 | Karsiyaka | 30 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 67 |
| 4 | Ayvalikgucu | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 59 |
| 5 | Balıkesirspor | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 58 |
| 6 | Uşak Spor | 30 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 48 |
| 7 | Denizli İYG | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 47 |
| 8 | Alanya 1221 FK | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | -5 | 38 |
| 9 | Tire 2021 FK | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 37 |
| 10 | Söke 1970 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -4 | 35 |
| 11 | Anadolu Üniversitesi | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 35 |
| 12 | Altay | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -12 | 28 |
| 13 | İzmir Çoruhlu FK | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -38 | 23 |
| 14 | Afjet Afyonspor | 30 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -30 | 22 |
| 15 | Bornova 1877 | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -33 | 21 |
| 16 | Nazilli Spor | 30 | 0 | 4 | 26 | -111 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.