Fotbalovy stadion Brizky · Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Jablonec II vs Slovan Liberec II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.85 expected goals for Jablonec II and 0.71 for Slovan Liberec II, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Jablonec II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jablonec II win
81.2% probability
Expected goals
2.85 – 0.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jablonec II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slovan Liberec II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jablonec II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.85 goals for Jablonec II and 0.71 for Slovan Liberec II, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.5%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 4–07.8%
Recent form
Jablonec II
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Čáslav · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Brozany · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Souš · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 2-0 (W)
Slovan Liberec II
- 2026-10-10T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Chrudim · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Benátky nad Jizerou · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladá Boleslav II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokol Zápy · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - CFL B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sokol Zápy | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Jablonec II | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Mladá Boleslav II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 17 |
| 4 | Benátky nad Jizerou | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Pardubice II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Teplice II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Baník Souš | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| 8 | Varnsdorf | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Čáslav | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Hradec Králové II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Horní Ředice | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Neratovice-Byškovice | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Sokol Brozany | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Chrudim | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Slovan Liberec II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 16 | Velké Hamry | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jablonec II win, at 81.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.