· Analysis updated 06:00 UTC
Jablonec II vs Sparta Praha II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Jablonec II and 1.70 for Sparta Praha II, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Jablonec II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jablonec II win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jablonec II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Praha II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jablonec II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 19% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Jablonec II and 1.70 for Sparta Praha II, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Jablonec II
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Čáslav · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Sokol Brozany · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Baník Souš · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Hradec Králové II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Varnsdorf · 2-0 (W)
Sparta Praha II
- 2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Praha II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Loko Vltavín · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Povltava FA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Benešov · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jablonec II win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.