· Analysis updated 16:46 UTC
Jacuipense vs Imperatriz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Jacuipense and 1.08 for Imperatriz, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Imperatriz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jacuipense home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Imperatriz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 33% / 30% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Jacuipense and 1.08 for Imperatriz, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.5%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Jacuipense
- 2026-06-28T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Treze · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Treze · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs CSA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juazeirense · 2-2 (D)
Imperatriz
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa do Nordeste table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitoria | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | ASA | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Sousa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Fluminense PI | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | AO Itabaiana | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Confiança | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 2 | Juazeirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Botafogo PB | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 4 | CRB | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 5 | Piauí | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 1 | Sport Recife | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Ceara | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Ferroviario | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 4 | America-RN | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 5 | Imperatriz | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 1 | ABC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Fortaleza EC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Retrô | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Jacuipense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 5 | Maranhão | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.