NK Jadran · Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Jadran LP vs Kustosija Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Jadran LP and 0.68 for Kustosija, a combined total of 1.68. That distribution gives Jadran LP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.9% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jadran LP home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kustosija away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.7%
- 1–018.7%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.4%
Recent form
Jadran LP
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kustosija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Orijent 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubrava Zagreb · 1-1 (D)
Kustosija
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jadran LP · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Croatia Zmijavci · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Cibalia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Jadran LP 1-0 Kustosija (First NL)
- 2026-03-14T14:00:00.000Z · Jadran LP 2-0 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2025-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · Jadran LP 2-0 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2025-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Jadran LP 4-1 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2024-10-31T13:00:00.000Z · Jadran LP 3-2 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2024-03-29T14:30:00.000Z · Jadran LP 0-1 Kustosija (Second NL)
- 2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Jadran LP 3-1 Kustosija (Second NL)
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jadran LP | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Croatia Zmijavci | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | HNK Cibalia | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Segesta Sisak | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Mladost Ždralovi | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Sesvete | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Dugopolje | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Dubrava Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Karlovac 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Orijent 1919 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Vukovar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Opatija | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Hrvace | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Kustosija | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.