· Analysis updated 17:11 UTC
Jagiellonia II vs Mławianka Mława Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Jagiellonia II and 1.25 for Mławianka Mława, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Jagiellonia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jagiellonia II win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jagiellonia II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mławianka Mława away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Jagiellonia II
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Troszyn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Płock II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź II · 2-3 (L)
Mławianka Mława
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Zambrów · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Elbląg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia II 7-4 Mławianka Mława (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2026-05-13T15:30:00.000Z · Jagiellonia II 1-0 Mławianka Mława (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2025-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia II 3-2 Mławianka Mława (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2025-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · Jagiellonia II 3-2 Mławianka Mława (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2024-10-05T10:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia II 2-2 Mławianka Mława (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2024-03-09T11:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia II 1-0 Mławianka Mława (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2023-08-19T10:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia II 3-0 Mławianka Mława (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2023-06-11T10:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia II 3-3 Mławianka Mława (III Liga - Group 1)
- 2022-11-12T12:30:00.000Z · Jagiellonia II 3-1 Mławianka Mława (III Liga - Group 1)
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 31 |
| 3 | Swit | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 26 |
| 4 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Pelikan Łowicz | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock II | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Warta Sieradz | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 9 | Olimpia Zambrów | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia II | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Widzew II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Mławianka Mława | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 11 |
| 18 | Łomża | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jagiellonia II win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.