Jagiellonia II vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Jagiellonia II and 2.10 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

60.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.07 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jagiellonia II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 39% / 20% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for Jagiellonia II and 2.10 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Jagiellonia II win39%

Draw20%

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win41%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals60%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

2–27.3%
1–27.1%
2–17.0%
1–16.7%
2–35.1%

Recent form

Jagiellonia II

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Troszyn · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Płock II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź II · 2-3 (L)

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Sieradz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigry Suwałki · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Zambrów · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Swit	14	8	2	4	8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	7	3	4	4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	6	4	4	4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	6	4	4	4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	6	4	4	2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	6	3	5	1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Widzew II	14	4	4	6	0	16
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	4	2	8	-10	14
17	Troszyn	14	2	5	7	-15	11
18	Łomża	14	0	4	10	-18	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.