Chorten Arena · Referee Wojciech Myc, Poland · Analysis updated 12:51 UTC
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.63 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Gornik Zabrze the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gornik Zabrze win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jagiellonia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gornik Zabrze away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Jagiellonia
- 2026-10-25T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Plock · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-3 (L)
Gornik Zabrze
- 2026-10-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Motor Lublin · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-24T18:30:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-10-26T16:30:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
- 2025-05-04T15:30:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 1-1 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-11-03T13:45:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 2-0 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
- 2024-03-02T14:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-08-27T15:30:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 4-1 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
- 2023-03-11T19:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 2-1 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-08-26T16:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 1-1 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
- 2022-02-14T17:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 2-1 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
- 2021-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · Jagiellonia 1-3 Gornik Zabrze (Ekstraklasa)
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Legia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 23 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 18 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Wisla Plock | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Widzew Łódź | 12 | 1 | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Slask Wroclaw | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Wieczysta Kraków | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gornik Zabrze win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.