Chorten Arena · Referee Karol Arys, Poland · Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.96 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Legia Warszawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Legia Warszawa win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jagiellonia home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Legia Warszawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Legia Warszawa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 22% / 22% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Jagiellonia and 1.96 for Legia Warszawa, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–28.7%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Jagiellonia
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Suduva Marijampole · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Wisla Krakow · 0-2 (L)
Legia Warszawa
- 2026-10-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Krakow · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Korona Kielce · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Widzew Łódź · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zaglebie Lubin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia Krakow | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Wieczysta Kraków | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 8 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -12 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Legia Warszawa win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.