· Analysis updated 18:09 UTC
Jagiellonia vs Polonia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.60 for Polonia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Jagiellonia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jagiellonia win
71.9% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jagiellonia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Warszawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jagiellonia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 19% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Jagiellonia and 0.60 for Polonia Warszawa, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.8%
- 1–014.3%
- 3–010.3%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.6%
Recent form
Jagiellonia
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Zaglebie Lubin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Gornik Zabrze · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 1-2 (L)
Polonia Warszawa
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stal Rzeszów · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Polkowice · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jagiellonia win, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.