· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Jahn Regensburg II vs Cham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Jahn Regensburg II and 1.85 for Cham, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Cham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cham win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jahn Regensburg II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cham away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.5%
- 1–110.7%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Jahn Regensburg II
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kornburg · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs ASV Neumarkt · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ammerthal · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs DJK Bamberg · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Cham · 0-2 (L)
Cham
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Bamberg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neudrossenfeld · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordlingen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger FV · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-18T16:15:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg II 0-2 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2025-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg II 0-1 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2025-07-19T12:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg II 1-2 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2025-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg II 1-0 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg II 1-4 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2023-11-18T15:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg II 3-2 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2023-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg II 1-7 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2023-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg II 3-3 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2022-08-19T17:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg II 2-3 Cham (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Würzburger FV | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Gebenbach | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Eintracht Bamberg | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 5 | Kornburg | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 24 |
| 6 | Bayern Hof | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Jahn Regensburg II | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 8 | Fortuna Regensburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | Stadeln | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 | Ammerthal | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 |
| 13 | Ingolstadt II | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Weiden | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Großbardorf | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 | DJK Bamberg | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -15 | 11 |
| 17 | Nordlingen | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cham win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.