· Analysis updated 02:58 UTC
Jahn Regensburg U19 vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Jahn Regensburg U19 and 1.75 for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Jahn Regensburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Jahn Regensburg U19 win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jahn Regensburg U19 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jahn Regensburg U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 20% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Jahn Regensburg U19 and 1.75 for SGV Freiberg Fussball U19, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 3–16.2%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Jahn Regensburg U19
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Unterhaching U19 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1860 München U19 · 2-8 (L)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg U19 · 0-2 (L)
SGV Freiberg Fussball U19
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Unterhaching U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ingolstadt U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgart U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1860 München U19 · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg U19 1-2 SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg U19 1-1 SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · Jahn Regensburg U19 1-3 SGV Freiberg Fussball U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jahn Regensburg U19 win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.