Estadio Alejandro Ramos · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Jalapa vs Rancho Santana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Jalapa and 1.02 for Rancho Santana, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Jalapa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.1% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jalapa home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rancho Santana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jalapa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Jalapa and 1.02 for Rancho Santana, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Jalapa
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Rancho Santana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Diriangén · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Matagalpa · 0-1 (L)
Rancho Santana
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Jalapa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Matagalpa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Walter Ferretti · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 26 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | San Marcos | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 7 | Matagalpa | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 8 | Walter Ferretti | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Jalapa | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 5 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.