Estadio Alejandro Ramos · Analysis updated 06:10 UTC
Jalapa vs Walter Ferretti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Jalapa and 1.71 for Walter Ferretti, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Walter Ferretti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Walter Ferretti win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.71
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jalapa home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Walter Ferretti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.4%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Jalapa
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs H&H Export · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Estelí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 1-3 (L)
Walter Ferretti
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Rancho Santana · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Matagalpa · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Diriangén · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Jalapa · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 2-2 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
- 2026-07-18T22:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 1-0 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
- 2026-04-29T22:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 3-0 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
- 2026-04-25T22:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 1-1 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
- 2026-02-22T00:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 0-0 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
- 2025-11-16T01:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 1-3 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
- 2025-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 3-0 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
- 2025-04-26T23:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 1-2 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
- 2025-02-19T21:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 0-0 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
- 2024-11-20T22:00:00.000Z · Jalapa 0-0 Walter Ferretti (Primera Division)
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | Real Estelí | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 25 |
| 4 | UNAN Managua | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 7 | Jalapa | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -6 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 12 |
| 9 | Matagalpa | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -22 | 10 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Walter Ferretti win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.