Estadio Miguel Hidalgo · Analysis updated 14:38 UTC
Jamaica vs South Africa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Jamaica and 0.92 for South Africa, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Jamaica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.3% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jamaica home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
South Africa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jamaica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 31% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Jamaica and 0.92 for South Africa, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Jamaica
- 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Honduras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Guatemala · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-06T21:00:00.000Z · H vs South Africa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs India · 2-0 (W)
South Africa
- 2026-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eritrea · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Guinea · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Canada · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-25T01:00:00.000Z · H vs South Korea · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.