Independence Park · Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Jamaica W vs Antigua and Barbuda W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Jamaica W and 0.98 for Antigua and Barbuda W, a combined total of 5.48. That distribution gives Jamaica W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 91%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 91% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jamaica W win
90.8% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jamaica W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jamaica W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 91%, against 91% / 6% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Jamaica W and 0.98 for Antigua and Barbuda W, a combined 5.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 59%, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
9%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–07.1%
- 4–17.0%
- 5–06.4%
- 3–06.3%
- 5–16.3%
Recent form
Jamaica W
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico W · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico W · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-07-31T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Rico W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-06-09T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Panama W · 0-0 (D)
Antigua and Barbuda W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - Women - Qualification Concacaf table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 12 |
| 2 | Costa Rica W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 12 |
| 3 | Jamaica W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 12 |
| 4 | Panama W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 5 | Haiti W | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 |
| 6 | Puerto Rico W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 |
| 7 | Guatemala W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 |
| 8 | Nicaragua W | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 9 |
| 9 | El Salvador W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 9 |
| 10 | Dominican Republic W | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 8 |
| 11 | Cuba W | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Aruba W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Guyana W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Bermuda W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Belize W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | Barbados W | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -44 | 6 |
| 17 | Trinidad and Tobago W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Honduras W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Suriname W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Grenada W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 21 | Curaçao W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 3 |
| 22 | US Virgin Islands W | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -17 | 3 |
| 23 | St. Kitts and Nevis W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Antigua and Barbuda W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 1 |
| 25 | Dominica W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -35 | 1 |
| 26 | Anguilla W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
| 27 | St. Lucia W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
| 28 | Cayman Islands W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -40 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jamaica W win, at 90.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 91% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.