Estadio Cibao FC · Analysis updated 11:54 UTC
Jamaica W vs Colombia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Jamaica W and 3.01 for Colombia W, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Colombia W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Colombia W win
82.5% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 3.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jamaica W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Colombia W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colombia W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 6% / 11% / 83% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Jamaica W and 3.01 for Colombia W, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
18%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.7%
- 0–210.7%
- 0–48.0%
- 1–37.9%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Jamaica W
- 2026-10-10T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mexico W · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico W · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-07-31T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Rico W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-06-09T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Panama W · 0-0 (D)
Colombia W
- 2026-10-13T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Rico W · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Central American and Caribbean Games table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico W | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 11 |
| 2 | Venezuela W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | El Salvador W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 4 | Colombia W | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| 5 | Puerto Rico W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 6 | Costa Rica W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 7 | Dominican Republic W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | Jamaica W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Colombia W win, at 82.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.