Stadion Miejski w Łodzi · Referee A. Twanyanyukwa · Analysis updated 12:34 UTC
Japan U20 W vs New Zealand U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.16 expected goals for Japan U20 W and 1.14 for New Zealand U20 W, a combined total of 4.31. That distribution gives Japan U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Japan U20 W win
76.9% probability
Expected goals
3.16 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Japan U20 W home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
New Zealand U20 W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Japan U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.16 goals for Japan U20 W and 1.14 for New Zealand U20 W, a combined 4.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.7%
- 3–07.1%
- 2–06.8%
- 4–16.4%
Recent form
Japan U20 W
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Italy U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand U20 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs England U20 W · 1-0 (W)
New Zealand U20 W
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 W · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Italy U20 W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan U20 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2024-09-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghana U20 W · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria U20 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · Japan U20 W 2-1 New Zealand U20 W (World Cup - U20 - Women)
- 2024-09-03T01:00:00.000Z · Japan U20 W 7-0 New Zealand U20 W (World Cup - U20 - Women)
World Cup - U20 - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poland U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Argentina U20 W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benin U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -11 | 1 |
| 1 | Brazil U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Canada U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | England U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tanzania U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
| 1 | France U20 W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Korea Republic U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Ecuador U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Ghana U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Italy U20 W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan U20 W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | United States U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 4 | New Zealand U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
| 1 | Korea DPR U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Portugal U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Colombia U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 |
| 2 | Nigeria U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 3 | China PR U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | New Caledonia U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -25 | 0 |
| 1 | United States U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 2 | England U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | China PR U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Colombia U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ecuador U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Japan U20 W win, at 76.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.