· Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Japan U23 vs Mali U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Japan U23 and 0.87 for Mali U23, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Japan U23 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Japan U23 win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Japan U23 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mali U23 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Japan U23 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Japan U23 and 0.87 for Mali U23, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.5%
Recent form
Japan U23
- 2026-09-16T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong U23 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs China PR U23 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-01-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Korea Republic U23 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-01-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Jordan U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-01-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Qatar U23 · 2-0 (W)
Mali U23
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-11-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia U23 · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Indonesia U23 · 3-0 (W)
- 2024-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay U23 · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-07-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan U23 · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Japan U23 win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.