New National Stadium · Referee Damian Kos, Poland · Analysis updated 16:26 UTC
Japan vs Iceland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Japan and 0.99 for Iceland, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Japan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Japan win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Japan home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iceland away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Japan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Japan and 0.99 for Iceland, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Japan
- 2026-10-05T10:30:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T10:10:00.000Z · H vs Ecuador · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T10:25:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T10:05:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Brazil · 1-2 (L)
Iceland
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Luxembourg · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Estonia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-10T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T10:25:00.000Z · A vs Japan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Haiti · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Japan win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.