Miyagi Stadium · Referee A. King · Analysis updated 15:49 UTC
Japan vs Uruguay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Japan and 0.99 for Uruguay, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Japan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Japan win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Japan home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uruguay away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Japan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 24% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Japan and 0.99 for Uruguay, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.5%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–06.7%
Recent form
Japan
- 2026-10-05T10:30:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T10:10:00.000Z · H vs Ecuador · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T10:25:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T10:05:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Brazil · 1-2 (L)
Uruguay
- 2026-06-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cape Verde Islands · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Saudi Arabia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Algeria · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-27T19:45:00.000Z · A vs England · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Japan win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.