Transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Japan W vs Canada W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Japan W and 1.28 for Canada W, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Japan W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Japan W win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Japan W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Canada W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Japan W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Japan W and 1.28 for Canada W, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–07.3%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Japan W
- 2026-09-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Philippines W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Chinese Taipei W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Thailand W · 8-0 (W)
Canada W
- 2026-06-10T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Costa Rica W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Brazil W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentina W · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-02T05:00:00.000Z · Japan W 1-0 Canada W (Friendlies Women)
- 2025-11-29T06:30:00.000Z · Japan W 3-0 Canada W (Friendlies Women)
- 2023-02-22T21:00:00.000Z · Japan W 3-0 Canada W (SheBelieves Cup)
- 2021-07-21T10:30:00.000Z · Japan W 1-1 Canada W (Olympics Women)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Japan W win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.