Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa · Analysis updated 00:47 UTC
Japan W vs Chinese Taipei W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.95 expected goals for Japan W and 0.86 for Chinese Taipei W, a combined total of 4.81. That distribution gives Japan W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Japan W win
88.8% probability
Expected goals
3.95 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Japan W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chinese Taipei W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Japan W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 7% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.95 goals for Japan W and 0.86 for Chinese Taipei W, a combined 4.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.4%
- 4–08.2%
- 3–17.2%
- 4–17.1%
- 5–06.5%
Recent form
Japan W
- 2026-09-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Philippines W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Chinese Taipei W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Thailand W · 8-0 (W)
Chinese Taipei W
- 2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-21T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Japan W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Thailand W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Korea DPR W · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Asian Games Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Japan W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 9 |
| 2 | Chinese Taipei W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | Vietnam W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 4 | Thailand W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 1 | Korea DPR W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 7 |
| 2 | South Korea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| 3 | Myanmar W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 1 |
| 4 | Bangladesh W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -16 | 1 |
| 1 | China W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 2 | Uzbekistan W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Philippines W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Hong Kong W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Philippines W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 2 | Vietnam W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
| 3 | Myanmar W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Japan W win, at 88.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.