Yanmar Stadium Nagai · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Japan W vs South Africa W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Japan W and 0.84 for South Africa W, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Japan W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Japan W win
74.5% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Japan W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
South Africa W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Japan W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Japan W and 0.84 for South Africa W, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 3–09.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Japan W
- 2026-09-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Philippines W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Chinese Taipei W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Thailand W · 8-0 (W)
South Africa W
- 2026-08-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Burkina Faso W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ivory Coast W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Japan W win, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.