· Referee M. Al-Emara · Analysis updated 07:17 UTC
JäPS vs KäPa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for JäPS and 1.24 for KäPa, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives JäPS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
JäPS win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
JäPS home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KäPa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.45 | 64.2% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 47.4% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 50.8% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +0.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.20 | 41.3% | 41.8% | 2.39 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.4% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.4% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 76.1% | 76.2% | 1.31 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.65 | 56.6% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 58.7% | 58.2% | 1.72 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 73.1% | 72.2% | 1.39 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.2% | 23.8% | 4.20 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.60 | 35.8% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
JäPS
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Klubi-04 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs EIF · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Kooteepee · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK Akatemia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs KäPa · 0-0 (D)
KäPa
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK Akatemia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Klubi-04 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs JäPS · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · JäPS 0-0 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-06-28T13:00:00.000Z · JäPS 1-3 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-05-29T16:00:00.000Z · JäPS 1-2 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-01-17T12:30:00.000Z · JäPS 0-1 KäPa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · JäPS 3-2 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2025-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · JäPS 3-0 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2025-06-06T15:30:00.000Z · JäPS 2-2 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2025-03-02T12:30:00.000Z · JäPS 0-5 KäPa (Ykköscup)
- 2024-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · JäPS 5-3 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-06-28T15:30:00.000Z · JäPS 2-2 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is JäPS win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.