Stade de Diaraf · Analysis updated 10:31 UTC
Jaraaf vs Sonacos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Jaraaf and 0.78 for Sonacos, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Jaraaf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.1% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jaraaf home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sonacos away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 1–016.9%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–08.3%
Recent form
Jaraaf
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Ouakam · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AJEL · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Camberene · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Sport · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs DSC · 3-0 (W)
Sonacos
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ouakam · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs HLM · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Camberene · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Sport · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaraaf · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T17:00:00.000Z · Jaraaf 0-0 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
- 2026-01-11T16:30:00.000Z · Jaraaf 0-0 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
- 2025-06-26T17:00:00.000Z · Jaraaf 2-0 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-09T16:45:00.000Z · Jaraaf 0-1 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
- 2024-03-28T16:30:00.000Z · Jaraaf 0-0 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
- 2023-11-26T16:30:00.000Z · Jaraaf 1-1 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
- 2023-03-18T16:30:00.000Z · Jaraaf 1-0 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
- 2022-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · Jaraaf 0-0 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
- 2019-03-25T16:00:00.000Z · Jaraaf 4-0 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
- 2018-12-10T16:30:00.000Z · Jaraaf 2-0 Sonacos (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.