Estadio El Condor · Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Jarabacoa vs Atlántico Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Jarabacoa and 1.17 for Atlántico, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Jarabacoa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jarabacoa win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jarabacoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlántico away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jarabacoa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Jarabacoa and 1.17 for Atlántico, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Jarabacoa
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Del Este · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlántico · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cibao · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-17T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-12-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 3-0 (W)
Atlántico
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarabacoa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Del Este · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Universidad O&M · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jarabacoa win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.