Estadio Junior Mejía · Analysis updated 19:23 UTC
Jarabacoa vs Salcedo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Jarabacoa and 2.17 for Salcedo, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Salcedo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Salcedo win
73.5% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 2.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jarabacoa home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Salcedo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salcedo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 9% / 18% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Jarabacoa and 2.17 for Salcedo, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–214.7%
- 0–113.6%
- 0–310.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Jarabacoa
- 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad O&M · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Moca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 0-3 (L)
Salcedo
- 2026-08-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Moca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad O&M · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Portmore United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 5 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -27 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Salcedo win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.