Estadio de Futbol Junior Mejia · Analysis updated 16:38 UTC
Jarabacoa vs Salcedo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Jarabacoa and 1.25 for Salcedo, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Salcedo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Salcedo win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jarabacoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Salcedo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salcedo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 20% / 30% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Jarabacoa and 1.25 for Salcedo, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.2%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–211.4%
- 1–09.8%
Recent form
Jarabacoa
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Del Este · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlántico · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cibao · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-17T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlántico · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-12-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs San Cristóbal · 3-0 (W)
Salcedo
- 2026-08-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Moca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Universidad O&M · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Portmore United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Mayor table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salcedo | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 29 |
| 2 | Cibao | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Vega Real | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Delfines Del Este | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Moca | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Universidad O&M | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Jarabacoa | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 |
| 8 | Atlántico | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Salcedo win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.