· Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Jaraguá vs Blumenau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.44 expected goals for Jaraguá and 3.73 for Blumenau, a combined total of 4.17. That distribution gives Blumenau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Blumenau win
92.8% probability
Expected goals
0.44 – 3.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Blumenau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Blumenau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 2% / 5% / 93% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.44 goals for Jaraguá and 3.73 for Blumenau, a combined 4.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
7%
Double chance 12
95%
Double chance X2
98%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–313.3%
- 0–412.4%
- 0–210.7%
- 0–59.3%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Jaraguá
Blumenau
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Marcílio Dias · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Joinville · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Catarina · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Catarinense - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blumenau | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Metropolitano | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Caravaggio | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 4 | Hercílio Luz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoça | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 7 | Fluminense-SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Nação | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 9 | Juventus SC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 10 | Jaraguá | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Blumenau win, at 92.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 93% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.