Jaraíz vs Badajoz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Jaraíz and 1.14 for Badajoz, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Jaraíz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jaraíz home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Badajoz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Jaraíz win39%

Draw28%

Badajoz win34%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–011.4%
0–110.4%
0–09.1%
2–18.2%

Recent form

Jaraíz

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Llerenense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Moralo · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Badajoz · 1-0 (W)

Badajoz

2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla Atletico · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife II · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-24T16:30:00.000Z · Jaraíz 0-2 Badajoz (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · Jaraíz 1-0 Badajoz (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2026-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · Jaraíz 1-4 Badajoz (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2025-12-14T11:00:00.000Z · Jaraíz 1-2 Badajoz (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2025-03-02T15:30:00.000Z · Jaraíz 1-0 Badajoz (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2024-10-20T15:00:00.000Z · Jaraíz 2-1 Badajoz (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azuaga	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Moralo	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Llerenense	5	4	1	0	4	13
4	Castuera	5	4	0	1	10	12
5	Villanovense	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Puebla Calzada	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	CD Zafra	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Gévora	6	2	2	2	-2	8
9	Jerez	5	2	1	2	1	7
10	Montijo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	1	3	2	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Quintana	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Plasencia	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Guadiana	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.