Jarfallavallen · Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Järfälla vs FBK Karlstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Järfälla and 1.70 for FBK Karlstad, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives FBK Karlstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Järfälla home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FBK Karlstad away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FBK Karlstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Järfälla and 1.70 for FBK Karlstad, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–26.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.53 (model 62.7% vs market 59.3%, edge +3.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.53 | 59.3% | 62.7% | 1.59 | +3.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 74.2% | 76.4% | 1.31 | +2.2 |
| Match result | Home | 3.00 | 29.8% | 31.5% | 3.17 | +1.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.48 | 37.1% | 38.6% | 2.59 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.30 | 39.5% | 40.3% | 2.48 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.00 | 44.7% | 44.9% | 2.23 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.60 | 55.7% | 55.1% | 1.81 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 60.5% | 59.7% | 1.68 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.46 | 62.9% | 61.4% | 1.63 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.27 | 70.1% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -1.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 23.6% | 4.24 | -1.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.23 | 40.7% | 37.3% | 2.68 | -3.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Järfälla
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stocksund · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Piteå · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlberg · 5-0 (W)
FBK Karlstad
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sollentuna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ettan - Norra table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 64 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 50 |
| 3 | Hammarby Talang | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 49 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 48 |
| 5 | Enköping | 27 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 48 |
| 6 | FBK Karlstad | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | IF Karlstad | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 44 |
| 8 | Umeå FC | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | Assyriska FF | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | -3 | 35 |
| 10 | Gefle IF | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -13 | 35 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -10 | 33 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 13 | Vasalund | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -22 | 28 |
| 14 | Piteå | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -16 | 24 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -21 | 23 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | -21 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.