Järfälla vs Umeå FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Järfälla and 1.76 for Umeå FC, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Umeå FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Järfälla home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Umeå FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Umeå FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 35% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Järfälla and 1.76 for Umeå FC, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Järfälla win35%

Draw23%

Umeå FC win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.8%
1–28.6%
2–17.8%
2–26.9%
0–16.1%

Recent form

Järfälla

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stocksund · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Piteå · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlberg · 5-0 (W)

Umeå FC

2026-08-30T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Vasalund · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Enköping · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Gefle IF · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Eskilstuna · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stockholm Internazionale	28	20	4	4	45	64
2	AFC Eskilstuna	27	15	5	7	15	50
3	Hammarby Talang	28	14	7	7	26	49
4	Arlanda	27	14	6	7	13	48
5	Enköping	27	15	3	9	1	48
6	FBK Karlstad	28	13	7	8	6	46
7	IF Karlstad	28	12	8	8	11	44
8	Umeå FC	27	11	5	11	-4	38
9	Assyriska FF	27	10	5	12	-3	35
10	Gefle IF	28	10	5	13	-13	35
11	Karlberg	27	9	6	12	-10	33
12	Sollentuna	28	7	10	11	-7	31
13	Vasalund	28	7	7	14	-22	28
14	Piteå	27	5	9	13	-16	24
15	Järfälla	28	6	5	17	-21	23
16	Stocksund	27	3	6	18	-21	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.