Järfälla vs Vasalund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Järfälla and 1.85 for Vasalund, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Järfälla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Järfälla home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vasalund away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Järfälla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 21% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Järfälla and 1.85 for Vasalund, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Järfälla win41%

Draw21%

Vasalund win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–18.1%
2–17.9%
1–27.5%
2–27.3%
3–15.1%

Recent form

Järfälla

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stocksund · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Piteå · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlberg · 5-0 (W)

Vasalund

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlberg · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Arlanda · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gefle IF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Assyriska FF · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stockholm Internazionale	26	19	3	4	42	60
2	Arlanda	26	14	6	6	15	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	26	14	5	7	11	47
4	Hammarby Talang	26	13	6	7	25	45
5	Enköping	26	14	3	9	-1	45
6	IF Karlstad	26	12	8	6	15	44
7	FBK Karlstad	26	12	7	7	5	43
8	Assyriska FF	26	10	5	11	-1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	10	5	11	-6	35
10	Karlberg	26	9	6	11	-8	33
11	Gefle IF	26	9	4	13	-14	31
12	Vasalund	26	7	7	12	-16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	6	9	11	-9	27
14	Piteå	26	5	8	13	-16	23
15	Järfälla	26	5	4	17	-23	19
16	Stocksund	26	3	6	17	-19	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.