Jarosław vs Korona Kielce II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Jarosław and 1.90 for Korona Kielce II, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Jarosław the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jarosław win

53.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.60 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jarosław home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Korona Kielce II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jarosław to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 19% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Jarosław and 1.90 for Korona Kielce II, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Jarosław win53%

Draw19%

Korona Kielce II win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

2–17.1%
2–26.8%
3–16.2%
3–25.9%
1–15.5%

Recent form

Jarosław

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KSZO 1929 · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Naprzód · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Moravia Morawica · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów · 5-2 (W)

Korona Kielce II

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisłoka Dębica · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kolb. · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarosław · 2-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	12	9	3	0	14	30
2	KSZO 1929	12	6	5	1	12	23
3	Naprzód	12	7	2	3	7	23
4	Wisłoka Dębica	12	7	2	3	3	23
5	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	12	6	2	4	7	20
6	Czarni Połaniec	12	6	2	4	1	20
7	Jarosław	12	5	2	5	6	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	1	17
9	Wisła Kraków II	12	4	4	4	-2	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	0	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	-9	14
13	Sokół Kolb.	12	2	7	3	-1	13
14	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	-5	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	-9	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	12	2	2	8	-10	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jarosław win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.