Jarosław vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Jarosław and 0.98 for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Jarosław the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jarosław win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jarosław home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jarosław to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Jarosław and 0.98 for Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Jarosław win56%

Draw23%

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów win21%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–011.3%
1–111.1%
2–010.1%
2–19.8%
0–06.4%

Recent form

Jarosław

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KSZO 1929 · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Naprzód · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Moravia Morawica · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów · 5-2 (W)

Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Wisłoka Dębica · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kolb. · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarosław · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	10	4	0	16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	8	5	1	15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	8	2	4	5	26
4	Naprzód	14	7	3	4	3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	7	3	4	2	24
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	6	3	5	6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Jarosław	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	3	7	4	-1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	-3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	4	2	8	-5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	-12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	-11	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	2	2	9	-14	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jarosław win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.