Stadion NK Jarun · Analysis updated 07:30 UTC
Jarun vs Trnje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Jarun and 1.46 for Trnje, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Jarun the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jarun win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jarun home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Trnje away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jarun to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Jarun and 1.46 for Trnje, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Jarun
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Križevci · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Cibalia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-2 (L)
Trnje
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jarun · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Koprivnica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bjelovar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Zapresic · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · Jarun 1-2 Trnje (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-05-09T09:00:00.000Z · Jarun 2-1 Trnje (Third NL - Sredite)
- 2020-10-17T13:15:00.000Z · Jarun 1-0 Trnje (Third NL - Sredite)
- 2019-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · Jarun 5-2 Trnje (Third NL - Sredite)
Second NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uskok Klis | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Bjelovar | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Dugo Selo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Jarun | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Trnje | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Uljanik | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Slavonija Požega | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Solin | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Zagora | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Križevci | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Grobničan Čavle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Lucko | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Varteks Varaždin | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Koprivnica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jarun win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.