Jarun vs Zagora Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Jarun and 2.00 for Zagora, a combined total of 5.00. That distribution gives Jarun the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jarun win

58.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

3.00 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jarun home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jarun to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 17% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Jarun and 2.00 for Zagora, a combined 5.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 87% and both teams to score at 82%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Match result (1X2)

Jarun win58%

Draw17%

Zagora win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

2–16.1%
2–26.1%
3–16.1%
3–26.1%
4–14.5%

Recent form

Jarun

2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Križevci · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Cibalia · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlovac 1919 · 1-2 (L)

Zagora

2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dugo Selo · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucko · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Uljanik · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Solin · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uskok Klis	9	7	0	2	14	21
2	Dugo Selo	10	6	1	3	8	19
3	Bjelovar	10	5	3	2	9	18
4	Jarun	9	3	6	0	5	15
5	Solin	10	4	3	3	4	15
6	Slavonija Požega	10	4	3	3	3	15
7	Trnje	10	4	2	4	2	14
8	Uljanik	10	4	2	4	-3	14
9	Inter Zapresic	10	3	4	3	-1	13
10	Zagora	10	2	6	2	1	12
11	Križevci	10	3	3	4	-3	12
12	Grobničan Čavle	10	3	3	4	-6	12
13	Hrvatski Dragovoljac	10	3	2	5	-7	11
14	Lucko	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Varteks Varaždin	10	2	2	6	-9	8
16	Koprivnica	10	1	2	7	-15	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jarun win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.