Stadion Miejski · Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Jastrzębie vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Jastrzębie and 1.67 for Zaglebie Sosnowiec, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Zaglebie Sosnowiec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jastrzębie home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zaglebie Sosnowiec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 0–26.5%
Recent form
Jastrzębie
- 2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 0-3 (L)
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Miedź Legnica II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagłębie Lubin II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rakow II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczbork · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Odra Bytom Odrzański · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 0-3 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (II Liga - East)
- 2026-02-14T10:00:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 2-6 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-05T15:00:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 0-1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (II Liga - East)
- 2025-04-27T17:30:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 1-0 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (II Liga - East)
- 2024-09-28T15:45:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 0-1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (II Liga - East)
- 2022-04-02T18:30:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 1-2 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (I Liga)
- 2021-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 1-1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (I Liga)
- 2021-05-22T10:40:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 0-3 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (I Liga)
- 2020-11-28T11:30:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 2-1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (I Liga)
- 2020-06-20T15:40:00.000Z · Jastrzębie 1-3 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (I Liga)
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 22 |
| 5 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 8 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hutnik Kraków | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 17 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Sokół Kleczew | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.