Gelora Kie Raha Stadium · Referee M. Iqballuddin · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Java United vs Garudayaksa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Java United and 1.07 for Garudayaksa, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Java United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Java United win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Java United home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Garudayaksa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Java United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Java United and 1.07 for Garudayaksa, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Java United
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Pusamania Borneo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persita · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)
Garudayaksa
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persebaya Surabaya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Java United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSS Sleman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-02T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persikad Depok FC · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Bali United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 4 | Persepam Madura Utd | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Persita | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Persebaya Surabaya | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Persik Kediri | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Persib Bandung | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Arema FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Bhayangkara FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | PSS Sleman | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Java United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 15 | PSM Makassar | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Persijap | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
| 18 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | -2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Java United win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.