Stadion Kraj Moravice · Analysis updated 17:37 UTC
Javor vs Napredak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Javor and 1.10 for Napredak, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Javor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Javor win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Javor home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Napredak away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Javor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Javor and 1.10 for Napredak, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Javor
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Grafičar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Cacak · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dubočica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftagas · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Loznica · 2-2 (D)
Napredak
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Cacak · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubočica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftagas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Loznica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Vozdovac · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | Javor | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Semendrija 1924 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 6 | Dubočica | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Napredak | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Loznica | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Naftagas | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Metalac GM | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 13 | Jedinstvo Ub | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Javor win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.