· Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
JDFS Alberts vs Rēzekne FA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for JDFS Alberts and 1.05 for Rēzekne FA, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives JDFS Alberts the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
JDFS Alberts win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
JDFS Alberts home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rēzekne FA away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–18.1%
- 3–07.7%
- 1–16.7%
Recent form
JDFS Alberts
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Metta / LU · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Valmiera / BSS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Smiltene · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mārupe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS II · 3-1 (W)
Rēzekne FA
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova 2 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Riga Mariners · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valmiera / BSS · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 4-2 Rēzekne FA (1. Liga)
- 2025-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 0-0 Rēzekne FA (1. Liga)
- 2025-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 8-1 Rēzekne FA (1. Liga)
- 2024-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 7-0 Rēzekne FA (1. Liga)
- 2024-05-19T13:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 3-0 Rēzekne FA (1. Liga)
- 2023-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 1-1 Rēzekne FA (1. Liga)
- 2023-06-21T12:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 8-0 Rēzekne FA (Cup)
- 2023-05-14T12:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 3-1 Rēzekne FA (1. Liga)
- 2022-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 2-0 Rēzekne FA (1. Liga)
- 2022-05-14T14:00:00.000Z · JDFS Alberts 4-1 Rēzekne FA (1. Liga)
1. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 76 | 57 |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 37 | 52 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 52 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 47 |
| 5 | JDFS Alberts | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 32 |
| 7 | Riga FC II | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -3 | 29 |
| 8 | Skanste | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -1 | 26 |
| 9 | Super Nova 2 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 10 | Smiltene | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -27 | 19 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -34 | 18 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -24 | 15 |
| 13 | Rīgas FS II | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | -29 | 15 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 22 | 1 | 3 | 18 | -52 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is JDFS Alberts win, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.