JDFS Alberts vs Riga Mariners Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for JDFS Alberts and 1.62 for Riga Mariners, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Riga Mariners the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.62

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

JDFS Alberts home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Riga Mariners away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga Mariners to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 38% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for JDFS Alberts and 1.62 for Riga Mariners, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

JDFS Alberts win38%

Draw23%

Riga Mariners win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–28.4%
2–18.3%
2–26.7%
0–16.5%

Recent form

JDFS Alberts

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Metta / LU · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Valmiera / BSS · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Smiltene · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mārupe · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS II · 3-1 (W)

Riga Mariners

2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Valmiera / BSS · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Smiltene · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rēzekne FA · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS II · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Metta / LU	22	18	3	1	76	57
2	Valmiera / BSS	22	16	4	2	37	52
3	Leevon / PPK	22	16	4	2	22	52
4	Riga Mariners	22	14	5	3	23	47
5	JDFS Alberts	22	12	4	6	13	40
6	Mārupe	22	10	2	10	3	32
7	Riga FC II	22	8	5	9	-3	29
8	Skanste	22	8	2	12	-1	26
9	Super Nova 2	22	6	8	8	-4	26
10	Smiltene	22	5	4	13	-27	19
11	Tukums II	22	5	3	14	-34	18
12	JFK Ventspils	22	3	6	13	-24	15
13	Rīgas FS II	22	4	3	15	-29	15
14	Rēzekne FA	22	1	3	18	-52	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.