King Abdullah Sports City · Referee K. Alahmari · Analysis updated 07:49 UTC
Jeddah Club vs Al Kholood Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Jeddah Club and 2.68 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Al Kholood the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Kholood win
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 2.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jeddah Club home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Kholood to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 15% / 17% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Jeddah Club and 2.68 for Al Kholood, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–27.3%
- 1–16.6%
- 0–36.5%
Recent form
Jeddah Club
- 2026-09-18T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Saqer · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Orubah · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Jeel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T16:20:00.000Z · H vs Al Najma · 1-0 (W)
Al Kholood
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
King's Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kholood | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Al Taawon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Ula | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | NEOM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Okhdood | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Al Riyadh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Al-Fayha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Wehda Club | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Jabalain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Abha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Al Orubah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Al Bukayriyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Al Shabab | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Al Anwar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Al-Ettifaq | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Al-Faisaly FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Al Zulfi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Al-Adalah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Al-Raed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Al Diriyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Al Najma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Al-Fateh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Damac | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Al Taee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Jeddah Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Kholood win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.