Jeddah Club vs Al Najma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Jeddah Club and 1.20 for Al Najma, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Al Najma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.01 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jeddah Club home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Najma away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Najma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 31% / 29% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Jeddah Club and 1.20 for Al Najma, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Jeddah Club win31%

Draw29%

Al Najma win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.3%
0–113.1%
1–011.1%
0–010.9%
1–28.0%

Recent form

Jeddah Club

2026-09-18T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Saqer · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-14T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Orubah · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Jeel · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-27T16:20:00.000Z · H vs Al Najma · 1-0 (W)

Al Najma

2026-09-19T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Anwar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · H vs Al-Raed · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Okhdood · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-01T17:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Jabalain · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-27T16:20:00.000Z · A vs Jeddah Club · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ula	7	6	1	0	13	19
2	Al Zulfi	8	3	5	0	8	14
3	Al Jabalain	7	3	3	1	2	12
4	Damac	8	3	3	2	1	12
5	Al Wehda Club	7	2	5	0	7	11
6	Al Najma	7	2	4	1	3	10
7	Al Anwar	7	2	4	1	2	10
8	Al Saqer	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Al-Raed	8	3	1	4	-4	10
10	Al Taee	8	3	1	4	-8	10
11	Al-Adalah	7	2	3	2	0	9
12	Jeddah Club	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Al Orubah	6	1	4	1	0	7
14	Al Okhdood	7	1	4	2	-4	7
15	Al Jandal	7	1	3	3	0	6
16	Hajer	6	1	3	2	-3	6
17	Al Jeel	6	0	2	4	-7	2
18	Al Bukayriyah	7	0	2	5	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.