· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Jedinstvo Ub vs Dubočica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Jedinstvo Ub and 1.03 for Dubočica, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Jedinstvo Ub the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jedinstvo Ub home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dubočica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jedinstvo Ub to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Jedinstvo Ub and 1.03 for Dubočica, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–111.4%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 55.7% vs market 47.0%, edge +8.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.0% | 55.7% | 1.80 | +8.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.0% | 61.0% | 1.64 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 38.9% | 39.0% | 2.56 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 31.9% | 32.0% | 3.13 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.2% | 29.0% | 3.45 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.4% | 68.0% | 1.47 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.6% | 71.0% | 1.41 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.0% | 44.3% | 2.26 | -8.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Jedinstvo Ub
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubočica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftagas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Loznica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Vozdovac · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Semendrija 1924 · 2-1 (W)
Dubočica
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Borac Cacak | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | Javor | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 4 | Semendrija 1924 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | OFK Vršac | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 25 |
| 6 | Napredak | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | FK Vozdovac | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Loznica | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Dubočica | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Metalac GM | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 | Naftagas | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| 13 | Teleoptik | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | Grafičar | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 | Jedinstvo Ub | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -10 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.