Jedinstvo Ub vs Grafičar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Jedinstvo Ub and 1.53 for Grafičar, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Grafičar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jedinstvo Ub home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grafičar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Jedinstvo Ub win36%

Draw24%

Grafičar win40%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.3%
1–28.6%
2–18.2%
0–17.8%
1–07.4%

Recent form

Jedinstvo Ub

2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubočica · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftagas · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Loznica · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Vozdovac · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Semendrija 1924 · 2-1 (W)

Grafičar

2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalac GM · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-11-15T12:00:00.000Z · Jedinstvo Ub 0-4 Grafičar (Prva Liga)
2025-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · Jedinstvo Ub 2-0 Grafičar (Prva Liga)
2024-05-07T15:00:00.000Z · Jedinstvo Ub 4-2 Grafičar (Prva Liga)
2023-11-18T12:00:00.000Z · Jedinstvo Ub 3-1 Grafičar (Prva Liga)
2023-08-11T15:30:00.000Z · Jedinstvo Ub 0-3 Grafičar (Prva Liga)
2023-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · Jedinstvo Ub 1-1 Grafičar (Prva Liga)
2023-03-19T12:00:00.000Z · Jedinstvo Ub 0-2 Grafičar (Prva Liga)
2022-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · Jedinstvo Ub 1-2 Grafičar (Prva Liga)

Prva Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	TSC Backa Topola	14	8	6	0	18	30
2	Borac Cacak	14	9	2	3	7	29
3	Javor	14	7	6	1	18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	14	7	4	3	7	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	8	1	5	4	25
6	Napredak	14	6	3	5	-1	21
7	FK Vozdovac	14	5	4	5	2	19
8	Loznica	14	4	7	3	-2	19
9	Dubočica	14	5	4	5	-2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	4	4	6	-6	16
12	Naftagas	14	3	6	5	4	15
13	Teleoptik	14	3	4	7	-7	13
14	Grafičar	14	3	2	9	-9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	3	2	9	-10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	2	2	10	-20	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.