JEF United Chiba vs Mito Hollyhock Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for JEF United Chiba and 1.31 for Mito Hollyhock, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives JEF United Chiba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

JEF United Chiba home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mito Hollyhock away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates JEF United Chiba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for JEF United Chiba and 1.31 for Mito Hollyhock, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

JEF United Chiba win42%

Draw25%

Mito Hollyhock win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.1%
2–18.8%
0–18.0%
1–27.8%

Recent form

JEF United Chiba

2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs V-varen Nagasaki · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fagiano Okayama · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Jubilo Iwata · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Shimizu S-pulse · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokyo Verdy · 1-1 (D)

Mito Hollyhock

2026-10-25T07:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fagiano Okayama · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-17T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Urawa · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tokyo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Shimizu S-pulse · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	19	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	7	22
7	Urawa	12	7	0	5	-2	21
8	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	-2	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	-7	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	-10	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	1	4	7	-12	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.