Jeju World Cup Stadium · Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Jeju United FC vs Hwaseong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.26 for Hwaseong, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Jeju United FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jeju United FC home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hwaseong away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jeju United FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Jeju United FC and 1.26 for Hwaseong, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Jeju United FC
- 2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Seoul · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gwangju FC · 1-0 (W)
Hwaseong
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Seongnam FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ansan Greeners · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheonan City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonnam Dragons · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.