· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Jelka vs Kostolné Kračany Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Jelka and 1.34 for Kostolné Kračany, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Kostolné Kračany the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jelka home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kostolné Kračany to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 27% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Jelka and 1.34 for Kostolné Kračany, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–08.1%
Recent form
Jelka
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostolné Kračany · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunajska Streda · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostolné Kračany · 0-0 (D)
- 2021-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Veľký Meder · 1-3 (L)
Kostolné Kračany
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jelka · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jelka · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ružomberok · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Gabčíkovo · 1-0 (W)
- 2024-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nový Život · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.